Nokia (NOK)

Telecom + optical networking (Nokia) — carrier networks + (post-Infinera) optical + data-center

AI exposure 10% — derived from reported segment revenue, not asserted.

Where it sits

Connectivity → Wireless & Mobile Networks · figures rebased to Q2 2026, reported 2026-07-23

Radio Networks is 36.7% of revenue and Nokia's largest single business, and Core Software at 10.5% plus Technology Standards at 8.5% sit in the same sub-tier — 55.7% of the company in Wireless & Mobile Networks, which is the whole of Mobile Infrastructure. Optical Networks at 18.0% is tagged secondary in Optical Components & Photonics: it grew 20% on constant currency, nearly doubled over FY2025 on the Infinera acquisition, and is now the larger of Nokia's two AI-facing infrastructure units, which the Atlas had the wrong way round. IP Networks at 14.1% is tagged in Network Switching & Hardware. Fixed Networks at 10.2% is off-map by kind. Rebased 2026-09 onto Nokia's 2026 segment structure and its Q2 2026 figures.

Also tagged: secondary in Connectivity → Optical Components & Photonics; emerging in Connectivity → Network Switching & Hardware.

Reported segments

• Mobile Infrastructure — 55.7% of revenue
• Network Infrastructure — 42.3% of revenue
• Group Common and Other — 2% of revenue

Nokia reorganised in 2026 and the Atlas was on the structure before it. It now reports two segments: Mobile Infrastructure (Radio Networks, Core Software and Technology Standards) and Network Infrastructure (Optical Networks, IP Networks and Fixed Networks), with all six units disclosed. Q2 2026 (group net sales EUR 4,815M): Mobile Infrastructure EUR 2,680M = 55.7% — Radio Networks EUR 1,765M (36.7%), Core Software EUR 507M (10.5%), Technology Standards EUR 407M (8.5%) — and Network Infrastructure EUR 2,037M = 42.3% — Optical Networks EUR 868M (18.0%), IP Networks EUR 679M (14.1%), Fixed…

How the 10% is built

• Mobile Infrastructure — 55.7% of revenue × 3% AI-driven (disclosed)
• Network Infrastructure — 42.3% of revenue × 20% AI-driven (estimate)
• Group Common and Other — 2% of revenue × 0% AI-driven (disclosed)

Investment read

Moat. One of three scale RAN vendors serving Western carriers, plus a standards-essential cellular patent portfolio that earns independently of equipment share, plus a top-tier optical franchise now that Infinera is integrated. NVIDIA's ~2.9% stake and the AI-RAN partnership add a credible second act to radio rather than replacing the base.

Bottleneck / pricing power. Real but modest pricing power: Q2 2026 comparable gross margin 46.0%, with Mobile Infrastructure at 49.3% — better than the 'commodity carrier equipment' framing implied. The constraint is that Ericsson contests every account and hyperscaler optical order flow is, in management's own word, lumpy: EUR 2.8B of AI & Cloud orders in one quarter is a booking, not a run-rate.

Role in the AI stack. The carrier-network + optical-interconnect layer.

Connected companies

• Microsoft (MSFT) — NOK supplies: multi-year deal: 7250 IXR data-center routers + SONiC switches for Azure 400GE networks
• Amazon (AMZN) — NOK supplies: optical/IP data-center networking — plausible post-Infinera, but no named AWS supply win
• Alphabet (GOOGL) — NOK supplies: ~$2B optical networking programme for Google's WAN (revealed OFC 2026)
• Broadcom (AVGO) — NOK is supplied by: merchant switch/routing silicon for IP networks
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) — NOK is supplied by: custom SoCs/infrastructure processors for Nokia 5G radio-access and transport platforms
• Coherent (COHR) — NOK is supplied by: optical components for transport systems
• Lumentum Holdings (LITE) — NOK is supplied by: lasers / EML chips / optical components into Nokia optical networking (incl. acquired Infinera line)
• NVIDIA (NVDA) — NOK is supplied by: AI-RAN partnership ($1B NVIDIA investment) — compute for AI radio
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) — NOK competes with: IP routing + data-center networking — Nokia vs Cisco
• Arista Networks (ANET) — NOK competes with: partial overlap — Nokia DC switching fabric vs Arista, but Arista dominates AI/data-center Ethernet
• MACOM Technology (MTSI) — NOK is supplied by: optical/RF components (laser drivers, TIAs) into telecom transport equipment; Nokia not publicly named as a customer
• Ubiquiti (UI) — NOK competes with: different tiers — Ubiquiti prosumer/WISP fixed-wireless vs Nokia carrier-grade RAN; minimal cross-shopping
• Ciena (CIEN) — NOK competes with: optical transport systems — Ciena vs Nokia (Infinera)
• Meta Platforms (META) — NOK supplies: optical transport (post-Infinera) targeting webscalers; Meta not publicly named as customer

Others in Wireless & Mobile Networks

• Motorola Solutions (MSI)

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