Modine Manufacturing (MOD)

Thermal management / data-center liquid cooling (Modine) — coolant distribution units

AI exposure 36% — derived from reported segment revenue, not asserted.

Where it sits

Physical Infrastructure → Thermal & Cooling · figures rebased to Q1 FY2027, reported 2026-07-29

Data-center cooling — Airedale chillers, CDUs, coils, air handling (hyperscale/colo) leads 2 businesses in this sub-tier that together are 70% of revenue, so Thermal & Cooling is effectively the whole company rather than one leg of it. The remaining 30% (Vehicle/off-highway thermal management…) is deliberately off-map.

Reported segments

• Data Centers — 40% of revenue
• Commercial HVAC&R — 30% of revenue
• Performance Technologies — 30% of revenue

Modine (~$3.5B FY2027E) — thermal management, now reported in three segments (Climate Solutions split eff. Apr 1, 2026): DATA CENTERS ~40% (Q1 FY2027 $348.6M, +90% YoY — Airedale chillers/CDUs/air handling, anchored by a $4B hyperscaler chiller LTA, one global tech customer >11% of consolidated sales = primary B2 Thermal & Cooling) + Commercial HVAC&R ~30% ($261.6M, +22% YoY) + Performance Technologies ~30% ($277.8M, -3% YoY; vehicle/off-highway thermal — off-map). ⚠ PENDING SPIN: Performance Technologies to be divested via Reverse Morris Trust with Gentherm, targeted close before year-end…

How the 36% is built

• Data Centers — 40% of revenue × 90% AI-driven (estimate). Segment revenue is disclosed ($348.6M, ~40% of sales); the AI fraction within it is estimated at 90 — the +90% growth, the $4B chiller LTA and the >11% single-hyperscaler concentration are all AI-capex-driven, with a residual for legacy enterprise/colo cooling demand that predates the AI cycle
• Commercial HVAC&R — 30% of revenue × 0% AI-driven (estimate). Commercial/institutional building HVAC&R ($261.6M, +22% YoY) — no AI linkage
• Performance Technologies — 30% of revenue × 0% AI-driven (estimate). Vehicular and off-highway thermal management ($277.8M, -3% YoY); being divested to Gentherm via Reverse Morris Trust — no AI linkage

Investment read

Moat. Data Centers is now the largest reported segment — $348.6M in Q1 FY2027, roughly 40% of sales and +90% YoY — on Airedale chillers and CDUs plus a $4B long-term chiller agreement, the largest contract in company history. The advantage is the LTA and the design-in position, not the technology: Vertiv, nVent and Boyd are credible alternatives on the same sockets.

Bottleneck / pricing power. Demand exceeds supply — the Q1 FY2027 revenue miss was a production constraint, not an order problem — but that has not yet converted into price. Adjusted EBITDA grew 5% on 28% sales growth and the margin compressed ~270bps to ~12.2% on capacity-ramp and supply-chain cost. The reaffirmed FY2027 guide requires roughly 16-17% for the full year, so the pricing-and-leverage question is unresolved rather than answered.

Role in the AI stack. The data-center liquid-cooling (CDU/coil) supplier.

Connected companies

• Vertiv Holdings (VRT) — MOD competes with: Both DC liquid-cooling players; Modine a smaller CDU/air-handling specialist vs full-stack Vertiv
• Carrier Global (CARR) — MOD competes with: Partial HVAC&R / data-center cooling overlap; Modine a component/CDU specialist vs broad-line Carrier
• AAON (AAON) — MOD competes with: mid-cap data-center cooling specialists — AAON BASX vs Modine
• CoreWeave (CRWV) — MOD supplies: data-center cooling (Airedale) — hyperscale/colo customer base, CoreWeave not publicly named
• nVent Electric (NVT) — MOD competes with: data-center cooling — nVent vs Modine
• Digital Realty Trust (DLR) — MOD supplies: data-center cooling (Airedale CDUs) for Digital Realty
• Microsoft (MSFT) — MOD supplies: data-center cooling (Airedale CDUs/chillers) — Modine says it works with all hyperscalers; specific customers undisclosed
• Meta Platforms (META) — MOD supplies: data-center cooling for META AI data centers
• Alphabet (GOOGL) — MOD supplies: hyperscaler cooling agreements exist but customer unnamed; Google link unproven
• Amazon (AMZN) — MOD supplies: data-center cooling for AMZN AI data centers
• Oracle (ORCL) — MOD supplies: coolant distribution units / chillers for AI data-center liquid cooling (hyperscale customer set undisclosed)
• Ecolab (ECL) — MOD competes with: data-center cooling — Ecolab (CoolIT CDUs/direct-to-chip) vs Modine (CDUs, coils, Airedale)

Others in Thermal & Cooling

• Vertiv Holdings (VRT)
• nVent Electric (NVT)
• Carrier Global (CARR)
• Trane Technologies (TT)
• Johnson Controls (JCI)
• AAON (AAON)
• Ecolab (ECL)

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