Carrier Global (CARR)

HVAC & data-center cooling — thermal systems at scale (Carrier)

AI exposure 9% — derived from reported segment revenue, not asserted.

Where it sits

Physical Infrastructure → Thermal & Cooling · figures rebased to Q2 2026, reported 2026-07-28

Residential & light commercial HVAC + aftermarket leads 2 businesses in this sub-tier that together are 100% of revenue, so Thermal & Cooling is effectively the whole company rather than one leg of it.

Reported segments

• HVAC (climate solutions, by region/type) — 100% of revenue

Carrier ($6.351B Q2 2026, +4% YoY, +3% organic) — now PURE HVAC (exited Fire&Security to Honeywell, Commercial Refrigeration). Commercial HVAC ~45% (incl. data-center cooling/chillers = the AI-relevant growth) + Residential/Light Commercial ~55% (+ aftermarket service). Primary B2 Thermal & Cooling. Data-center cooling is the AI hook — guided to ~$2B FY2026 revenue (~9% of sales; Q2 orders +300%, all H2 deliveries in backlog; QuantumLeap chip-to-chiller stack incl. ZutaCore two-phase). Competes TT/JCI/AAON; supplies data centers/buildings.

How the 9% is built

• HVAC (climate solutions, by region/type) — 100% of revenue × 9% AI-driven (disclosed). Mgmt Q2 2026: FY2026 data-center revenue guided to ~$2B against ~$23B total sales = ~9%. This supersedes the prior 12% estimate — the company's own number is lower than the atlas estimate was, despite data-center orders growing >300% YoY.

Investment read

Moat. HVAC scale, brand and an installed-base service network, now a pure-play climate business after exiting Fire & Security and commercial refrigeration. Data-centre cooling is the fast-growing vector inside it, with the QuantumLeap chip-to-chiller stack (including ZutaCore two-phase) as the technical hook.

Bottleneck / pricing power. Moderate at best, and Q2 2026 tested it: adjusted operating margin fell 190 bps YoY to 17.2% with all four segments compressing (CSA -260 bps, APME -350 bps) as tariffs and input costs outran price, and adjusted EPS fell 7% YoY on a revenue beat. Demand is not the constraint — total orders rose ~40%, Commercial HVAC ~65%, data-centre 300%+, with backlog at a record >$8B — cost pass-through is.

Role in the AI stack. The HVAC/cooling-systems layer — data-center cooling at scale.

Connected companies

• Equinix (EQIX) — CARR supplies: HVAC / data center cooling
• Trane Technologies (TT) — CARR competes with: HVAC / climate majors — DC cooling + building thermal
• Vertiv Holdings (VRT) — CARR competes with: Overlap in data-center cooling but different tiers — Carrier building-HVAC/chillers vs Vertiv precision/liquid rack cooling
• Modine Manufacturing (MOD) — CARR competes with: Partial HVAC&R / data-center cooling overlap; Modine a component/CDU specialist vs broad-line Carrier
• Johnson Controls (JCI) — CARR competes with: data-center + commercial HVAC majors — JCI Silent-Aire/YORK vs Carrier QuantumLeap
• AAON (AAON) — CARR competes with: air-side + liquid cooling for data centers
• Digital Realty Trust (DLR) — CARR supplies: data-center cooling/chillers for Digital Realty
• Microsoft (MSFT) — CARR supplies: commercial HVAC/data-center cooling for Microsoft
• Meta Platforms (META) — CARR supplies: data-center cooling for META AI data centers
• Alphabet (GOOGL) — CARR supplies: data-center cooling for GOOGL AI data centers
• Amazon (AMZN) — CARR supplies: data-center cooling for AMZN AI data centers
• Oracle (ORCL) — CARR supplies: data-center cooling for ORCL AI data centers
• CoreWeave (CRWV) — CARR supplies: data-center cooling for CRWV AI data centers
• Ecolab (ECL) — CARR competes with: data-center cooling — Ecolab (direct-to-chip liquid cooling) vs Carrier (chillers/applied HVAC); adjacent points of the cooling loop

Others in Thermal & Cooling

• Vertiv Holdings (VRT)
• nVent Electric (NVT)
• Trane Technologies (TT)
• Modine Manufacturing (MOD)
• Johnson Controls (JCI)
• AAON (AAON)
• Ecolab (ECL)

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