Rocket Lab (RKLB)

Space systems + small-launch (Rocket Lab) — satellite manufacturing now ~81% of revenue, Electron flying, Neutron in development

AI exposure 0% — derived from reported segment revenue, not asserted.

Where it sits

Frontier & Emerging Bets → Space & Satellite Infrastructure · figures rebased to Q2 2026, reported 2026-08-10

Satellite manufacturing + space components… leads 2 businesses in this sub-tier that together are 100% of revenue, so Space & Satellite Infrastructure is effectively the whole company rather than one leg of it.

Reported segments

• Space Systems — 81% of revenue
• Launch Services — 19% of revenue

Rocket Lab (~$769M TTM revenue; Q2 2026 $234.1M, +62% YoY) — vertically integrated space company, #2 US launch after SpaceX. Space Systems $189.5M = 81% of Q2 revenue (satellite manufacturing, components, plus Mynaric optical inter-satellite terminals and Motiv robotics, both acquisitions closed in 2026) + Launch Services $44.6M = 19% (Electron/HASTE at cadence; Neutron's first flight has effectively slipped to 2027 — management reaffirmed only Q4 2026 Stage 1 tank-to-pad and would not commit to a 2026 launch). Record backlog $2.36B (+137% YoY) across 90+ contracted missions, decisively…

How the 0% is built

• Space Systems — 81% of revenue × 0% AI-driven (estimate). Satellite buses, components and Mynaric optical terminals serve defense, civil and commercial space customers — the SDA transport layer and Space Force work drive it, not AI or data-center demand
• Launch Services — 19% of revenue × 0% AI-driven (estimate). Electron/HASTE revenue tracks satellite deployment and hypersonic test demand, unrelated to AI compute

Investment read

Moat. Vertically integrated space systems — now 81% of revenue across buses, components, Mynaric optical inter-satellite terminals and Motiv robotics — plus the only Western small-launch vehicle with real cadence. Flight heritage and qualification are the switching cost. Backlog is a record $2.36B (+137% YoY) across more than 90 contracted missions, with $437M+ of new launch awards in Q2 and over $1B of contracts signed in Q3 to date; the mix is decisively defense — a $397M SB-AMTI Flatellite award, $160M+ of geostationary Space Force work, the SDA transport layer and a Golden Dome sub-prime role.

Bottleneck / pricing power. Moderate pricing power, and Q2 tested it. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded 460bps YoY to 41.5% and GAAP was 36.1%, but Q3 GAAP gross margin was guided to just 29-31% against roughly 37.6% expected, on a mix tilting to lower-margin satellite platform sales plus Mynaric and Motiv integration costs — the single largest negative in the print. SpaceX still sets the ceiling: Falcon 9's near-monopoly in medium lift means Neutron will have to be sold on national-security supply-chain diversity rather than on economics.

Role in the AI stack. The small-launch + space-systems layer (the SpaceX challenger) — now four-fifths satellite manufacturing.

Connected companies

• Teledyne Technologies (TDY) — RKLB is supplied by: space/defense imaging + electronic components
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) — RKLB competes with: Space infrastructure — Rocket Lab (launch+systems) vs AST (direct-to-device satellites); adjacent
• Intuitive Machines (LUNR) — RKLB competes with: Space services — Rocket Lab vs Intuitive Machines (lunar/NASA); adjacent niches
• SpaceX (SPCX) — RKLB competes with: space/launch — SpaceX vs Rocket Lab

Others in Space & Satellite Infrastructure

• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)
• Intuitive Machines (LUNR)
• SpaceX (SPCX)

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