AST SpaceMobile (ASTS)

Direct-to-cell satellite broadband (AST SpaceMobile) — space-based cellular, deploying; commercial service needs ~45 satellites, now early 2027

AI exposure 0% — derived from reported segment revenue, not asserted.

Where it sits

Frontier & Emerging Bets → Space & Satellite Infrastructure · figures rebased to Q2 2026, reported 2026-08-10

Direct-to-cell satellite broadband network (BlueBird satellites — connect standard phones from space)… is 100% of revenue, so Space & Satellite Infrastructure is effectively the whole company rather than one leg of it.

Reported segments

• Space-based cellular broadband (single business) — 100% of revenue

AST SpaceMobile (revenue ramping — $31.5M in Q2 2026, H1 $47.3M, FY2026 guided $150-200M) — space-based direct-to-cell broadband connecting standard smartphones. 13 BlueBirds in orbit after BB8-13 went up inside a 50-day window, BB14-16 built and BB17-46 in production against a ~6-satellites-per-month assembly target and ten booked launches; roughly 45 satellites is the threshold for commercial service and that date moved from end-2026 to early 2027. FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space authorization for up to 248 satellites on low-band spectrum coordinated with AT&T and Verizon; 60+ MNO…

How the 0% is built

• Space-based cellular broadband (single business) — 100% of revenue × 0% AI-driven (estimate). Q2 2026 revenue is gateway hardware and US government contract milestones; direct-to-cell connectivity is telecom infrastructure, and no AI or data-centre end-use is disclosed or plausibly material

Investment read

Moat. The regulatory and carrier position is the real asset: FCC Supplemental Coverage from Space authorization for up to 248 satellites on premium low-band spectrum coordinated with AT&T and Verizon, 60+ MNO agreements covering 3B+ subscribers, and ~$1.30B of contracted backlog including more than $125M already received from US government contracts. It is no longer pre-revenue — $31.5M in Q2 against $150-200M guided for FY2026 — but with 13 BlueBirds in orbit against the ~45 needed to sell service, the position is still an option on deployment, and Starlink Direct-to-Cell contests the same use…

Bottleneck / pricing power. No demonstrated pricing power: it sells wholesale capacity to carriers who own the end customer, so retail economics are set by the MNO. Q2 2026 gross margin fell to 25.1% from 44.8% in Q1 — compression that is mix rather than price, since gateway hardware and government milestone deliveries carry hardware economics and none of it is the wholesale service revenue the ~90% margin target refers to. That target stays unproven until service is switched on.

Role in the AI stack. The direct-to-cell satellite-broadband layer — deploying, with commercial service from ~45 satellites now guided early 2027.

Connected companies

• Rocket Lab (RKLB) — ASTS competes with: Space infrastructure — Rocket Lab (launch+systems) vs AST (direct-to-device satellites); adjacent
• SpaceX (SPCX) — ASTS competes with: satellite connectivity — Starlink (broadband, plus emerging direct-to-cell) vs AST SpaceMobile (pure direct-to-cell); overlap mainly in D2C

Others in Space & Satellite Infrastructure

• Rocket Lab (RKLB)
• Intuitive Machines (LUNR)
• SpaceX (SPCX)

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