Integrated power + retail (NRG Energy) — generation + retail selling into power demand
AI exposure 15% — derived from reported segment revenue, not asserted.
Energy Supply & Critical Minerals → Nuclear Power & Utilities · figures rebased to Q2 2026, reported 2026-08-04
Competitive retail electricity + home services (Vivint) leads 2 businesses in this sub-tier that together are 100% of revenue, so Nuclear Power & Utilities is effectively the whole company rather than one leg of it.
NRG Energy ($7.481B Q2 2026) — integrated retail + generation (gas-heavy, minimal nuclear). Generation ~40% (gas fleet, expanding for data-center demand) + competitive retail + Vivint home services ~60%. Primary B4 Nuclear Power & Utilities (placed by generation/utility role; note: NRG is gas-heavy, not nuclear-led unlike CEG/VST/TLN). Data-center power supply deals. Competes CEG/VST.
Moat. A large competitive-retail book (Reliant, Direct Energy, plus Vivint) integrated with a dispatchable gas fleet, now materially larger after the LS Power acquisition — the retail load is the hedge and the recurring piece, the generation is the commodity. What structural scarcity exists is positional rather than proprietary: interconnection queues and turbine slots make new dispatchable capacity in ERCOT and PJM slow to add.
Bottleneck / pricing power. Pricing power is asymmetric by market, and Q2 2026 showed both sides in one print. East EBITDA rose $370M YoY to $469M on the LS Power assets plus higher PJM capacity prices — capacity markets are tightening and NRG is paid for being there. Texas fell $131M to $381M on mild weather and $33/MWh Houston ATC prices, which is what merchant energy price-taking looks like. NRG sets retail terms; it does not set the power price.
Role in the AI stack. The integrated generation + retail power layer.
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