Constellation Energy (CEG)

Largest US nuclear fleet (Constellation) — carbon-free baseload for data centers

AI exposure 15% — derived from reported segment revenue, not asserted.

Where it sits

Energy Supply & Critical Minerals → Nuclear Power & Utilities · figures rebased to Q2 2026, reported 2026-08-06

Nuclear generation (largest US carbon-free fleet, 21 reactors) — AI data-center PPAs (MSFT/Meta) leads 2 businesses in this sub-tier that together are 100% of revenue, so Nuclear Power & Utilities is effectively the whole company rather than one leg of it.

Reported segments

• Generation (nuclear-led) + commercial — 100% of revenue

Constellation Energy (~$30B annualized post-Calpine; Q2 2026 revenue ~$7.5B/qtr) — largest US nuclear/clean-power operator, now consolidating Calpine ($26.6B acquisition closed 2026: gas fleet + retail). Nuclear generation ~50% est of the enlarged base (21 reactors, largest US carbon-free fleet = primary B4 Nuclear; the AI data-center power leader — Microsoft 20-yr PPA restarting Three Mile Island/Crane, Meta Clinton PPA, CyrusOne, Walmart 176 MW/Dresden; 5,650+ MW contracted plus 920 MW signed Q2 2026 for 2029-32 start) + other generation (Calpine gas/renewables) & retail supply ~50% est.…

How the 15% is built

• Generation (nuclear-led) + commercial — 100% of revenue × 15% AI-driven (estimate). Lowered from 20 on the denominator, not the numerator: the contracted data-center PPA book (Microsoft/Crane, Meta/Clinton, CyrusOne; Walmart and the other 920 MW start 2029-32) keeps growing, but Calpine consolidation lifted revenue from ~$24B to ~$30B annualized with essentially no AI-linked content added…

Investment read

Moat. The largest US nuclear fleet — assets that cannot be replicated on any relevant timeline — now paired with Calpine's gas and retail book. The moat is the contracted conversion of that scarcity: 5,650+ MW already under long-term PPA (Microsoft/Crane, Meta/Clinton, CyrusOne) plus 920 MW signed in Q2 2026 on 15-20 year terms with investment-grade counterparties, including Walmart at 176 MW tied to a Dresden expansion.

Bottleneck / pricing power. Real and rising pricing power on firm carbon-free power — new PPAs are being signed well above the PTC floor, and the counterparty set is broadening beyond hyperscalers. But it is gated twice: PJM colocation rulemaking is unresolved, which keeps the at-scale co-location deals on hold, and the new tranches commence 2029-2032, so contracted pricing does not reach near-term earnings.

Role in the AI stack. The carbon-free baseload-power layer for AI data centers.

Connected companies

• GE Vernova (GEV) — CEG is supplied by: nuclear steam-turbine island equipment & services
• Cameco (CCJ) — CEG is supplied by: uranium + fuel services
• Microsoft (MSFT) — CEG supplies: 20-yr 835MW nuclear PPA (Three Mile Island / Crane restart)
• Mirion Technologies (MIR) — CEG is supplied by: radiation detection & safety monitoring for nuclear fleet
• Vistra (VST) — CEG competes with: Largest US nuclear/merchant power operators — both signing hyperscaler PPAs
• Talen Energy (TLN) — CEG competes with: Nuclear-to-data-center PPAs (CEG-Microsoft vs TLN-AWS Susquehanna)
• NRG Energy (NRG) — CEG competes with: Merchant power + retail energy
• Meta Platforms (META) — CEG supplies: nuclear PPA (Clinton Clean Energy Center) for Meta data centers
• NextEra Energy (NEE) — CEG competes with: utility/nuclear generation — NextEra (FPL) vs Constellation
• CoreWeave (CRWV) — CEG supplies: carbon-free baseload supply to AI data centers; CoreWeave-specific agreement not disclosed
• Centrus Energy (LEU) — CEG is supplied by: LEU/enriched uranium for Constellation nuclear fleet (utility fuel)
• Energy Fuels (UUUU) — CEG is supplied by: uranium concentrate (U3O8, White Mesa) sold into the nuclear fuel cycle

Others in Nuclear Power & Utilities

• Vistra (VST)
• NRG Energy (NRG)
• Talen Energy (TLN)
• NextEra Energy (NEE)

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