US rare earths + magnets (MP Materials) — domestic mine-to-magnet supply chain, now adding heavy rare earths (Dy/Tb, Gd, Sm)
AI exposure 7% — derived from reported segment revenue, not asserted.
Energy Supply & Critical Minerals → Critical Minerals & Base Metals · figures rebased to Q2 2026, reported 2026-08-06
Rare earth concentrate, separated NdPr oxide + heavy rare earths (Mountain Pass — only US REE mine) leads 2 businesses in this sub-tier that together are 100% of revenue, so Critical Minerals & Base Metals is effectively the whole company rather than one leg of it.
MP Materials (~$416M TTM revenue; $108.5M in Q2 2026, +89% YoY, plus $17.6M of price-protection income) — the only scaled US rare-earth producer, reporting two segments. Materials ~85% of segment revenue (Mountain Pass concentrate + separated NdPr oxide, and now the heavy rare-earth circuit — primary B4 Critical Minerals; NdPr sales 1,006 MT, +127% YoY) + Magnetics ~15% (Independence NdFeB, revenue -17% YoY as profitable precursor sales are deliberately withdrawn to feed internal magnet production). Primary B4 Critical Minerals & Base Metals. Q2 2026 hardened the contracted book rather than…
Moat. The only scaled US rare-earth mine (Mountain Pass), integrated far enough downstream that the government relationship is ownership rather than patronage: DoD/DoW equity, a price-protection agreement, and an agreement covering 100% of 10X magnet output for ten years after construction. Q2 2026 added a second layer of contracted paper — a nine-figure long-term separated-gadolinium offtake with a new US aerospace/defense customer, Independence magnets delivered to GM for in-vehicle qualification and regulatory testing, and the standing Apple agreement. What the moat still lacks is proof at…
Bottleneck / pricing power. The price-protection agreement converts a China-priced commodity into contracted economics — but MP has never disclosed the floor level and declined again on the Q2 call, so the single most important revenue support is modelled from guidance commentary rather than from disclosure. What is observable is the mechanism unwinding as intended: realized NdPr was in the high-$90s/kg and PPA income fell to $17.6M from $42.3M in Q1 ($59.9M YTD), with Q3 guided to roughly $10/kg of PPA on high-$90s realized pricing — an effective ~$107-110/kg. It covers MP's own volume only, so it is a revenue…
Role in the AI stack. The US mine-to-magnet rare-earth layer — and now the first domestic source of heavy rare earths.
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