Symbotic (SYM)

Warehouse robotics + AI automation (Symbotic) — autonomous supply-chain/warehouse systems

AI exposure 55% — derived from reported segment revenue, not asserted.

Where it sits

Frontier & Emerging Bets → Robotics & Autonomous Systems · figures rebased to FQ3 FY2026, reported 2026-08-05

AI-powered warehouse automation systems (robots + software for supply-chain/distribution centers) is 100% of revenue, so Robotics & Autonomous Systems is effectively the whole company rather than one leg of it.

Reported segments

• Warehouse automation systems (single business) — 100% of revenue

Symbotic (~$2.65B TTM as of FQ3 2026) — AI-powered warehouse automation. Single business: robots + AI software for distribution/supply-chain centers. Walmart-anchored (largest customer + investor; acquisition of Walmart's Advanced Systems & Robotics business COMPLETED, deepening the tie); GreenBox JV with SoftBank (>half of the $22.5B contracted backlog). Recurring layer (software $13M + operations services $37M in FQ3 2026) growing ~2.5x faster than systems but still only ~7% of revenue. Primary B7 Robotics & Autonomous Systems. Competes Amazon-robotics(in-house)/Honeywell/Dematic; supplies…

How the 55% is built

• Warehouse automation systems (single business) — 100% of revenue × 55% AI-driven (estimate). Labeled estimate, unchanged: Symbotic sells whole warehouse-automation systems and does not break out AI software content. Software revenue was disclosed at $13M and operations services $37M in FQ3 2026 — together only ~7% of revenue — so no disclosure supports moving this either way.

Investment read

Moat. Warehouse-automation systems with genuine physical switching costs once installed — a deployed system is a rebuilt distribution centre on roughly 15-year terms. But the book is concentrated rather than diversified: contracted backlog of $22.5B fell sequentially for the first time (from $22.7B in FQ2), and more than half traces to the SoftBank-affiliated GreenBox JV rather than arm's-length customers.

Bottleneck / pricing power. Weaker than the backlog implies. Non-GAAP gross margin has plateaued at 25.0% with FQ4 2026 guided in line or slightly below, and adjusted EBITDA margin guided flat at ~13% — management's 30%+ systems gross-margin target moved further away, not closer, and adjusted EPS of $0.09 missed consensus by roughly 25%.

Role in the AI stack. The warehouse/supply-chain robotics-automation layer.

Connected companies

• Teradyne (TER) — SYM competes with: Teradyne sells cobot/AMR components (UR, MiR); Symbotic sells complete warehouse systems — adjacent automation tiers, not direct substitutes
• Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) — SYM is supplied by: battery management system (BMS) design win on robotics platform

Others in Robotics & Autonomous Systems

• Hesai Technology (HSAI)

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