Moody's (MCO)

Credit ratings (Moody) + risk analytics data — capital-markets information (S&P duopoly)

AI exposure 7% — derived from reported segment revenue, not asserted.

Where it sits

Software Stack → Data & Infrastructure Software · figures rebased to Q2 2026, reported 2026-07-22

Risk/data analytics software, research, ESG, KYC (recurring subscriptions) leads 2 businesses in this sub-tier that together are 100% of revenue, so Data & Infrastructure Software is effectively the whole company rather than one leg of it.

Reported segments

• Moody's Investors Service (Ratings) — 57.7% of revenue
• Moody's Analytics — 42.3% of revenue

Moody's ($2,185M Q2 2026, +15% YoY). From the 10-Q segment note: Moody's Investors Service $1,260M = 57.7% (+25%, with transactional revenue $891M, +34%, at a 68.3% adjusted operating margin) = primary B5 Data & Infrastructure Software; Moody's Analytics $925M = 42.3% (+4%, or +8% organic constant currency; recurring revenue is 99% of MA and ARR reached $3.7B, +9%, led by Decision Solutions +10%). The ratings half has pulled ahead as issuance recovered, from roughly 48/52 a year ago.

How the 7% is built

• Moody's Investors Service (Ratings) — 57.7% of revenue × 5% AI-driven (disclosed). Credit ratings on debt issuance, which now includes heavy data-centre and utility financing but carries no AI content of its own
• Moody's Analytics — 42.3% of revenue × 10% AI-driven (disclosed). Analytics and data platforms with AI features layered on; the KYC and Decision Solutions lines use models but sell risk workflow

Investment read

Moat. The ratings duopoly with S&P, plus an analytics annuity that is now the larger half of the company — Moody's Analytics ARR ~$3.7B (+9% YoY) at 99% recurring revenue and 95% retention. Issuer-pays ratings and embedded risk data are both structurally hard to disintermediate; MIS ran a 68.3% adjusted operating margin in Q2 2026.

Bottleneck / pricing power. Strong pricing power (ratings duopoly + analytics stickiness + must-have risk data); issuance-cyclical but structurally dominant.

Role in the AI stack. The credit-ratings + risk-analytics layer.

Connected companies

• S&P Global (SPGI) — MCO competes with: credit-ratings + financial-data duopoly — S&P Global vs Moody's (with Fitch ~95% of ratings)

Others in Data & Infrastructure Software

• IBM (IBM)
• MongoDB (MDB)
• Cloudflare (NET)
• Snowflake (SNOW)
• Datadog (DDOG)
• S&P Global (SPGI)

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